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I’ve been off for a couple days, fighting a case of the blah’s. I would go to the office in the morning, then end up working from home in the afternoon. And by the time 4:00pm got here, I was pretty wiped out. This evening I’m better, though still not great. But let’s talk about something…and try to keep it brief.
How about a little conspiracy?
For years, there has been speculation that President Franklin Roosevelt knew in advance about the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. As Commander-in-Chief, any President has access to classified information that no one else can see. FDR was certainly no exception, and in 1994 the McCollum Memo was declassified. Conspiracy theorists jumped on this highly sensitive document like flies on stink as proof the President not only knew an attack was coming, but that he had purposely engineered the debacle, then expressed outrage when it occurred.
What is the McCollum Memo? It’s a 6-page document penned by Arthur McCollum, a Lt. Col. in the Office of Naval Intelligence, and submitted to his superiors on October 7, 1940 (14 months before the Pearl Harbor attacks). Germany, Italy, and Japan had, less that two weeks before, signed the Tripartite Pact, and McCollum’s paper begins with his strategic view of the world in light of their close association. He then offered up an assessment of Japan’s strengths and weaknesses.
So far so good.
But then McCollum added 8 steps he believed would drive the Japanese to declare war on the United States. They included things like keeping the U.S. Fleet parked in Hawaii (which we did), instigating a trade embargo with Japan (which we did), and aiding Chiang Kai-shek and the Chinese military (which we also did). He finished the document with the curious phrase, “If by these means Japan could be led to commit an overt act of war, so much the better.”
The “superiors” to whom he submitted his work weren’t just “the next guys in the chain”, they were Captains Walter Anderson and Dudley Knox, both very close to President Roosevelt. And you’re all sleuthy enough to put the sequence of events together…Knox and Anderson receive the memo, which they read and pass to the President. The President then reads the memo, has light-bulbs go off in his brain, and manipulates foreign policy to follow McCollum’s suggestions, and then allows Pearl Harbor to be attacked so we can enter the war with Britain.
But the 64-thousand-dollar question still lingers…while this sequence of events is possible, did it actually happen?
And, unfortunately for the conspiracy theorists, the best answer is likely “no”. Anderson (the Director of Naval Intelligence) certainly read McCollum’s paper…he added his own comments at the end, which included the phrase, “…we should not precipitate anything in the Orient.”
The eight “steps to war” proposed by McCollum were largely followed by the Roosevelt Administration, but they were measures that were largely dictated by the current political/military situations of the moment rather than a pre-meditated drive to war. There is zero factual evidence (and only the most obtuse of circumstantial evidence) that the McCollum Memo ever landed in front of the President’s eyes. And finally, it was Japan who attacked first, regardless of real or implied provocation, and it was they who jumped through all kinds of hoops to make it not look like an undeclared act of war.
In the end, I think the McCollum Memo was far more a “what if” analysis by a mid-level officer than a serious policy document that the administration adapted for its own purposes. There may be “smoking guns” in the the Roosevelt Administration (like there are in many), but those looking for a real story will probably have to look elsewhere.
Recommended Reading: Day of Deceit: The Truth About FDR and Pearl Harbor – I recommend Stinnet’s book as an interesting read, not necessarily the Scouts-honor gospel of what happened leading up to Pearl Harbor. The McCollum Memo looms fairly large in this book. For another good take (and links to the entire document), check this site as well.
Today's History Lesson 
[…] As American as apple pie, this yarn never seems to get old. Trouble is, only Americans will swear to it. Japanese military records indicate strict radio silence was a general order during the […]
FDR’s advisers were too smart to have a direct link between him & the McCullum Memo.
It’s of little consequence whether or not FDR read the actual memo. What’s important is that a top military intelligence officer (an expert in the art of war) concocted a formula to spark a war with Japan, and the U.S. took each step, as if following a recipe to bake a cake.
It’s widely known FDR wanted to inject the U.S. into that War. So, was it mere coincidence FDR took all of the steps military experts predicted would provoke war with Japan?
Let’s examine the conventional side of the argument that assumes FDR randomly thought up each of the steps himself. Surely, his top military advisers would have warned him he was risking war with Japan by taking each step before he took it. But FDR took all the steps anyway.
The only conclusions I derive from that is either FDR was a complete idiot, or he intentionally provoked war with Japan.
Do you believe in a grand conspiracy? Do you believe Oswald acted alone?
Do you believe that government is corrupt? If so, then to what
degree? That may depend on how willing you are to open your eyes and mind to
see. Why is it that the more things change, the more they stay the same?
Why doesn’t society ever seem to grow up? Most people grow up thinking that the world is very big and we believe the world exists the way it does today because this is the direction humanity has taken and chosen.
Conspiracy Today,
When all the evidence was examined, there was scant evidence that Oswald was part of conspiracy. The opposite is true of FDR’s efforts to spark war with Japan.
Major General Fred Martin (in charge of Hawaiian Air Patrol) & Vice Admiral Patrick Bellinger (also stationed in Hawaii) prepared & delivered a report (The Martin-Bellinger Report) warning the White House in March of 1941 that if Japan made war on the US, they would strike Pearl Harbor without warning at dawn with aircraft from perhaps as many as 6 carriers.
For years Navy planners had assumed that Japan, on the outbreak of war, would strike the American fleet wherever it was. The fleet was the only threat to Japan’s plans. Logically, Japan couldn’t engage in any major operation with the American fleet on its flank. See “And I Was There,” by Admiral Edwin Layton, Chief Naval Intelligence Officer throughout the War.
As soon as the Pearl Harbor attack force left Japan, our Navy Department ordered all US trans-Pacific shipping to take the southern route. PHH 12:317 (PHH = 1946 Congressional Report, vol. 12, page 317) ADM Turner testified “We sent the traffic down to the Torres Straight, so that the track of the Japanese task force would be clear of any traffic.” PHH 4:1942
In the Congressional investigations looking into the attack on Pearl Harbor, General Marshall was forced to make a series of damaging admissions under sharp questioning by Senator Homer Ferguson, among them was that the U.S. prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor had secretly initiated military agreements with the British and Dutch, directed against the Japanese, aimed at getting them to cut off Japan’s oil supplies in Indochina.
Who were the persons that recommended the economic blockade of Japan that lead to war? Those persons were Harry Dexter White & Lauchlin Currie, both of whom were Stalin’s secret agents of influence working inside the U.S. government. Entangling Japan in a War with the U.S. brought America into the War in Europe & caused Japan to change plans regarding its intended attack on the Soviets in Manchuria.
[…] As American as apple pie, this yarn never seems to get old. Trouble is, only Americans will swear to it. Japanese military records indicate strict radio silence was a general order during the […]
To limit Japan militarily, vital resources such as oil, steel, and cotton were embargoed by the US. As soon as this was done, Japan had two choices – abject surrender, or fight.
The US – unless remarkably naive – must have known this.
With a deep need to be punched first, in order to manipulate public opinion, the US provided Pearl Harbour as a target / blood sacrifice.
Please see comments to Eric Mayforth’s review, pages 1, 7-9.
http://www.amazon.com/review/RT0PJK89V90D0/ref=cm_cr_dp_cmt?ie=UTF8&ASIN=030740515X&channel=detail-glance&nodeID=283155&store=books#wasThisHelpful
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/united-states-freezes-japanese-assets